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McCain cites need for experience, picks first-term governor as veep
Egad! It's all over my friends page already. Sarah Palin! McCain picks Alaska governor to be his running mate!
Opinions are all over the map. Myself, I think it was a very clever choice from a demographic point of view, and frankly a lot bolder than I would have expected from his campaign. Apart from the simple fact that she's a woman, she's pro-life and has one child with Down syndrome; she's an evangelical, but not a Southern evangelical; she has Alaska credibility and supports drilling in ANWR. She's almost tailor-made to draw back the moderate conservatives who have become disillusioned with the Republican Party in the last eight years. Very shrewd indeed.
But my gut reaction says that it's a fatal mistake for McCain, who has been running almost exclusively on an "experience" platform for the last several months. Choosing Palin pretty much annihilates that argument. It seems to say that McCain no longer believes he can win experience, and is looking for a reverse wedge that he thinks will give him an advantage.
If that's the case, I think Obama and Biden have a clear path to victory. They need to focus diligently but relentlessly on policy issues. McCain and Palin are going to have an uphill battle persuading the public that they are a team prepared to lead the country, and that Palin will be ready to take over the top job if McCain keels over. Unless Palin turns out to be a ringer on the debate box, I expect Biden to be able to eat her for dinner.
The game isn't over, not by a long shot --- but the McCain campaign just took a big fumble.
Opinions are all over the map. Myself, I think it was a very clever choice from a demographic point of view, and frankly a lot bolder than I would have expected from his campaign. Apart from the simple fact that she's a woman, she's pro-life and has one child with Down syndrome; she's an evangelical, but not a Southern evangelical; she has Alaska credibility and supports drilling in ANWR. She's almost tailor-made to draw back the moderate conservatives who have become disillusioned with the Republican Party in the last eight years. Very shrewd indeed.
But my gut reaction says that it's a fatal mistake for McCain, who has been running almost exclusively on an "experience" platform for the last several months. Choosing Palin pretty much annihilates that argument. It seems to say that McCain no longer believes he can win experience, and is looking for a reverse wedge that he thinks will give him an advantage.
If that's the case, I think Obama and Biden have a clear path to victory. They need to focus diligently but relentlessly on policy issues. McCain and Palin are going to have an uphill battle persuading the public that they are a team prepared to lead the country, and that Palin will be ready to take over the top job if McCain keels over. Unless Palin turns out to be a ringer on the debate box, I expect Biden to be able to eat her for dinner.
The game isn't over, not by a long shot --- but the McCain campaign just took a big fumble.
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What comes next?
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So "what comes next" is, when the Dems sling the inexperience mud, say "I always liked Obama and thought he was a great opponent, I just think he's inexperienced." Or "I wish he wouldn't sling mud."
The ad was so positive, it got me cynical, because I could totally see McCain turning around, two-faced, and being all sunshine and love after the last 18 months of crap. The final 2 months is what leaves a good or bad taste in your mouth....
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And also those Hillary democrats who say NO to Obama after the bitter primary...might they be swayed by a woman for veep?
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The PUMA nutters make for great interviews but I think in the final analysis they are the fringe of the fringe. There are not enough of them to make the difference.
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And I mostly agree with your analysis and aggravation with the Hilary crazies. I would add to it that they seem to be blaming Obama for the problems she had with other entities (such as the press) and for simple fact he won. In short, they feel cheated and are blaming him, both for things he is responsible for and things he is not.
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Without a doubt this will pull in some of the PUMAs. I daresay that was one of the primary objectives in choosing Palin. Will it turn the election? Frankly I don't think so. It will turn some of the most centrist Hillary supporters and some of the most bitter ones, but I don't think there will turn out to be enough there to make it work.
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It's cool that it isn't stopping him from running like it would've 30 years ago, but it's still serious business.
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Is she enough to win the turnout battle with an Obama-energized Democratic Party for a Bush-weary electorate? Probably not. But I don't think there's a vice presidential candidate in the country who could do that. (Certainly not Romney. Huckabee would bring out the base at the expense of swing voters.) Ultimately, I think this is a good choice, whether or not it's good enough.
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I almost agree that it's Obama's to lose. Almost. But the Democratic party bows to none in its ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, so I'm trying not to count on anything until at least Wednesday, Nov 5. I do think Obama still has the advantage; he just has to play it carefully. To date he has shown he knows how to do that, so I think he's in good shape.
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And I don't think it will even succeed at what it tries to do. Will the conservative Christian rank and file really get excited about a female vice president? Will many Hillary voters really be attracted to an anti-abortion candidate?
So, happily, I think this will come to be viewed as a serious misstep, or at least lost opportunity. Plus I'm really looking forward to the VP debate.
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Of course the conservative Christian rank and file will get excited about a female vice president; she fully stands behind her man.
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But McCain still has all the experience he had 24 hours ago, and Obama has gotten 24 more hours of experience as a senator & presidential candidate. McCain can still tout experience, because he has it and Obama doesn't. And it's not like the Dems can't say "Look at how inexperienced she is!" with Obama sitting on the top of their ticket.
I disagree with your characterization as a fumble for McCain - she's a great choice to turn out the conservative side of the Republican party who might otherwise stay home in droves for McCain, while poaching Hilary supporters who might otherwise stay home instead of voting for Obama. Sure, given that she's pro-life she's not going to be able to sway that many Democrats, but really, who can you think of as a potential running mate who would garner votes from the Dems & swing voters without driving away the conservatives? Maverick McCain, who lots of Republicans love to hate for his maverick ways, needed to pick someone who could convince Republicans that they should actually vote in November - having Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the Oval Office will do just that.
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It's going to be very hard for him to make that argument now, since it opens him up to the same criticism. The argument that Obama presents now is not "experience matters," it's "you're no longer in a position to criticize me." And they can make that point very effectively now. I don't expect to see much of the "experience" stuff from the McCain camp any longer.
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Dems can't kick Palin for lack of experience. Reps will say "We may lack experience at VP but you lack experience at Prez. Plus, our 'inexperienced' candidate has actual executive experience; what does yours have?"
It was obvious to me that McCain would pick someone who had the pros/cons of his cons/pros. I would have guessed a white man by default, but young or maverick-ish was all but a given. In fact, I was thinking the most about Lieberman, and what the reaction would be if he were the pick.
In the end it won't matter. It's McCain v Obama, the rest is irrelevant.
PS - probably the best outcome for Palin is to lose. As VP she'd be very much second fiddle (which Biden won't be), as a former candidate she'd be very high profile.
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