McCain cites need for experience, picks first-term governor as veep

[topaz]

Egad!  It's all over my friends page already.  Sarah Palin!  McCain picks Alaska governor to be his running mate!

Opinions are all over the map.  Myself, I think it was a very clever choice from a demographic point of view, and frankly a lot bolder than I would have expected from his campaign.  Apart from the simple fact that she's a woman, she's pro-life and has one child with Down syndrome; she's an evangelical, but not a Southern evangelical; she has Alaska credibility and supports drilling in ANWR.  She's almost tailor-made to draw back the moderate conservatives who have become disillusioned with the Republican Party in the last eight years.  Very shrewd indeed.

But my gut reaction says that it's a fatal mistake for McCain, who has been running almost exclusively on an "experience" platform for the last several months.  Choosing Palin pretty much annihilates that argument.  It seems to say that McCain no longer believes he can win experience, and is looking for a reverse wedge that he thinks will give him an advantage.

If that's the case, I think Obama and Biden have a clear path to victory.  They need to focus diligently but relentlessly on policy issues.  McCain and Palin are going to have an uphill battle persuading the public that they are a team prepared to lead the country, and that Palin will be ready to take over the top job if McCain keels over.  Unless Palin turns out to be a ringer on the debate box, I expect Biden to be able to eat her for dinner.

The game isn't over, not by a long shot --- but the McCain campaign just took a big fumble.

Comments

[innerdoggie.livejournal.com]

I think she's a smart choice from the demographic point of view, but does give some openings for Democrats to attack.

What comes next?

[awfief.livejournal.com]

Well, McCain started it with his ad lauding Obama.

So "what comes next" is, when the Dems sling the inexperience mud, say "I always liked Obama and thought he was a great opponent, I just think he's inexperienced." Or "I wish he wouldn't sling mud."

The ad was so positive, it got me cynical, because I could totally see McCain turning around, two-faced, and being all sunshine and love after the last 18 months of crap. The final 2 months is what leaves a good or bad taste in your mouth....

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

I agree with the first half of this, but i don't think it's a big fumble. Also, the timing of the announcement was excellent, obliterating any mention of Obama's excellent speech yesterday from the "liberal" media.

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

Oh, I think the timing was a given. McCain had to step on Obama's convention bounce somehow.

[nacht_musik]

It's utterly inappropriate, but I have to mention: VPILF.

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

You win the internets today, my friend.

[wotw]

Agreed on every count.

[dbang.livejournal.com]

I don't see the fumble. he's running on HIS experience, not hers.

And also those Hillary democrats who say NO to Obama after the bitter primary...might they be swayed by a woman for veep?

[kcatalyst.livejournal.com]

I'm sure there are lots of different kinds of Hillary dems, but at least all the ones I know are implacable when it comes to abortion rights. So while it might make them sigh a bit, I don't see them flocking to an anti-choice team just for the ovaries.

[dbang.livejournal.com]

Well there is certainly no way a *rational* person could support both Hillary's policies and McCain/Palin's. But I keep hearing these crazies on NPR who spent so many months building up the hate against Obama that now they can't let go, and the anti-Obama fervor has eaten their brains. "No way I'll vote for Obama, I'd rather vote for McCain" I hear them say on the radio. Oy.

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

Some of those people almost certainly will vote McCain/Palin out of spite. But some of them, for all their rhetoric, will come to their senses by Election Day, pull the lever for Obama, and go home to have a stiff drink.

The PUMA nutters make for great interviews but I think in the final analysis they are the fringe of the fringe. There are not enough of them to make the difference.

[harimad.livejournal.com]

"Amen to your Oy."

And I mostly agree with your analysis and aggravation with the Hilary crazies. I would add to it that they seem to be blaming Obama for the problems she had with other entities (such as the press) and for simple fact he won. In short, they feel cheated and are blaming him, both for things he is responsible for and things he is not.

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

The vice president needs to be ready to take over at a moment's notice if something happens to the president. McCain's age makes that even more of an issue than it might be otherwise, and he knows that's on the voters' minds. Already I see both offices have put out press releases on the experience issue.

Without a doubt this will pull in some of the PUMAs. I daresay that was one of the primary objectives in choosing Palin. Will it turn the election? Frankly I don't think so. It will turn some of the most centrist Hillary supporters and some of the most bitter ones, but I don't think there will turn out to be enough there to make it work.

[innerdoggie.livejournal.com]

More than just his age, too. He's had more than one bout with melanoma. That isn't a trivial cancer like basal cell or something.

It's cool that it isn't stopping him from running like it would've 30 years ago, but it's still serious business.

[kcatalyst.livejournal.com]

I totally agree. The idea of drawing in the evangelicals and the angry Clintonites with the *same* VP? Fabulous! Brilliant! And yet, somehow, it seems deeply unlikely to work.

[lhn.livejournal.com]

I still think the election is Obama's to lose, and I still don't think VP choices matter very much. But I think it's a solid choice. If McCain had picked another old white guy, the experience issue would be offset by the ticket looking like yesterday's news. He can legitimately claim enough experience for both of them, and offer an all-maverick ticket for voters tired of the Bush administration but not up for Carter redux. ( :-) What can I say: a Democratic newcomer on the liberal side of the party, with strong religious convictions, on the heels of a deeply unpopular Republican presidency in a time of rising inflation and an oil shock?) He can shore up his bona fides with religious conservatives and poach a few disgruntled Clinton supporters on the margin. And she's demonstrated an ability to take on older, more established political figures and win.

Is she enough to win the turnout battle with an Obama-energized Democratic Party for a Bush-weary electorate? Probably not. But I don't think there's a vice presidential candidate in the country who could do that. (Certainly not Romney. Huckabee would bring out the base at the expense of swing voters.) Ultimately, I think this is a good choice, whether or not it's good enough.

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

It's definitely a spunky choice, and I think that alone gives it some merit. McCain's campaign has been sort of ambling to find direction, and this could give it a shot in the arm. And for all we know she may have campaigning skills that no one yet is aware of. We could be in for some surprises.

I almost agree that it's Obama's to lose. Almost. But the Democratic party bows to none in its ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, so I'm trying not to count on anything until at least Wednesday, Nov 5. I do think Obama still has the advantage; he just has to play it carefully. To date he has shown he knows how to do that, so I think he's in good shape.

[innerdoggie.livejournal.com]

I think McCain can win and has been running a smart campaign. (You know, we're always disagreeing this way! You think your side will lose and I think mine will.) :-)

[lhn.livejournal.com]

Which at least means that (barring the meteors qwrrty mentioned in another post) one of us will be pleasantly surprised in November. :-)

[slinkr.livejournal.com]

After Dan Quayle, I'm pretty convinced that the candidates' choice of VP won't have any impact on people's voting decisions unless one of the VP candidates turns out to be an axe murderer.

[isotopeblue.livejournal.com]

Too clever by half, and shows how much McCain is now in thrall to his handlers. It's the sort of choice that seems brilliant to someone who thinks in terms of voting blocks: both fire up the conservative Christian base and lure Hillary voters. But it undermines not only the experience argument against Obama, but also any conception of McCain as someone who thinks only about what's best for the country.

And I don't think it will even succeed at what it tries to do. Will the conservative Christian rank and file really get excited about a female vice president? Will many Hillary voters really be attracted to an anti-abortion candidate?

So, happily, I think this will come to be viewed as a serious misstep, or at least lost opportunity. Plus I'm really looking forward to the VP debate.

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

Maybe i'm too cynical, but i don't think that there are enough people who a) care about the "undermining experience argument" thing or b) would let this get in the way of thinking that McCain thinks about what's best for the country.

Of course the conservative Christian rank and file will get excited about a female vice president; she fully stands behind her man.

[cruiser.livejournal.com]

But my gut reaction says that it's a fatal mistake for McCain, who has been running almost exclusively on an "experience" platform for the last several months. Choosing Palin pretty much annihilates that argument.

But McCain still has all the experience he had 24 hours ago, and Obama has gotten 24 more hours of experience as a senator & presidential candidate. McCain can still tout experience, because he has it and Obama doesn't. And it's not like the Dems can't say "Look at how inexperienced she is!" with Obama sitting on the top of their ticket.

I disagree with your characterization as a fumble for McCain - she's a great choice to turn out the conservative side of the Republican party who might otherwise stay home in droves for McCain, while poaching Hilary supporters who might otherwise stay home instead of voting for Obama. Sure, given that she's pro-life she's not going to be able to sway that many Democrats, but really, who can you think of as a potential running mate who would garner votes from the Dems & swing voters without driving away the conservatives? Maverick McCain, who lots of Republicans love to hate for his maverick ways, needed to pick someone who could convince Republicans that they should actually vote in November - having Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the Oval Office will do just that.

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

McCain can still tout experience, because he has it and Obama doesn't.

It's going to be very hard for him to make that argument now, since it opens him up to the same criticism. The argument that Obama presents now is not "experience matters," it's "you're no longer in a position to criticize me." And they can make that point very effectively now. I don't expect to see much of the "experience" stuff from the McCain camp any longer.

[harimad.livejournal.com]

Short version: VP candidate doesn't matter. Bentsen crucified Quayle in the debates. Bush won anyway.

Dems can't kick Palin for lack of experience. Reps will say "We may lack experience at VP but you lack experience at Prez. Plus, our 'inexperienced' candidate has actual executive experience; what does yours have?"

It was obvious to me that McCain would pick someone who had the pros/cons of his cons/pros. I would have guessed a white man by default, but young or maverick-ish was all but a given. In fact, I was thinking the most about Lieberman, and what the reaction would be if he were the pick.

In the end it won't matter. It's McCain v Obama, the rest is irrelevant.

PS - probably the best outcome for Palin is to lose. As VP she'd be very much second fiddle (which Biden won't be), as a former candidate she'd be very high profile.

[lhn.livejournal.com]

I can think of losing VP candidates who've come back on top of their party's ticket. But I can't think of any, offhand, who actually won the presidency.

[qwrrty.livejournal.com]

I was puzzling over this too. Ferraro, Bentsen, Lieberman, Kemp? Being a former candidate for V.P. didn't seem to do much to burnish these resumes.

[harimad.livejournal.com]

Being nominated raised all their profiles (Kemp less so than the others) - remember, we're talking about profile with the general public as well as within their party. And Bentsen, in particular, became the Dem's Grand Old Man after his run.

[harimad.livejournal.com]

Nixon, sorta. He was Ike's VP '53-61, then lost in '60 and finally won in '68. Not exactly the situation you meant, but close.